Aided by investments in AI and increases in exports, consumer spending, and government spending, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.0% in 1Q26.1 Although first quarter economic growth was less than the 2.6% rate forecasters had projected, it was markedly higher than 4Q25’s 0.5% growth rate, when the government shutdown led to significant reductions in government spending and investment.2 The first quarter also concluded with the 10-year Treasury rate at 4.3%, the unemployment rate at 4.3%, and the inflation rate at 3.5% as measured by the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index.

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Research contact:
Debo Ayeni

Research sponsored by ABR Capital Partners